Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi
Date: January 2011
My top 10 technology trends lists cover trends that I think will be important over the next three years or so. As 2012 begins, it’s time to focus on what’s around the corner so we are ready for massive change and newfound complexity.
- Data Intensive Applications Will Rule Wireless IP
As I predicted a decade ago, IP will eat everything. And I was right. But now, for my next prediction: Wireless data applications will eat IP in less than three years. The size and magnitude of this change is impossible to imagine, but the implications for service providers will hit like a tsunami in 2015. - Mobile Data Congestion Is Already a Reality
Service providers must start to off-load to other wireless technologies like WIFI immediately. They also need to create space for new applications like those used in advanced technologies like robotic surgical operation. Data off-loading, like WIFI itself, is an immediate need for all service providers worldwide. - Applications Must be the Center
Networks must be re-designed so that applications are the center of the universe. Networks must adapt and adjust traffic needs of the application such as latency, jitter and packet loss absorption to provide spontaneous and ubiquitous coverage across the world. - Data Traffic is rising.
By 2015, 91 percent of Internet traffic will be video, including HD and 3D video. The current Internet is not designed for these needs. We have to design networks, and applications such as CDN, to be able to handle the load effectively and efficiently. Additionally, management of traffic at data centers poses another major challenge for service providers. Data center traffic will exceed five zetabytes in 2015 and 76 percent of that data will stay inside the data center. This demands brand new architectures, much different than the models developed with Layer 4-7 switch in last decade. In addition, 50 percent of video is for downstream mobile traffic and Over-The-Top (OTT) players like Netflix who make their revenue on the backs of companies like ATT, Verizon and others. These OTT players will command 35 percent of U.S. peak downstream traffic - Rising Data, Declining Revenue
This trend, already visible, will continue — and accelerate — in 2014 and 2015. Today data revenue and traffic are disassociated in a data dominant world. Revenues are beginning to plateau so CXOs must be ready to help CEOs create innovative ways to take revenue away from OTT players starting now. - Cloud Computing Will Plateau
Cloud computing implementation will plateau by 2015. Technologies such quantum computing will take their place at the center of our universe for decades to come, and the traditional Moore’s law computing model will be replaced.For example, in 1940, computers processed one CPS (cycle per second) every 150 seconds. As computing has improved, we moved up to common PCs like the IBM PS/2, which ran at 250 CPS. When the Cray computer was needed for massive processing, it had only 86 million CPS. Now, in 2011, with the iPad2, we have over 2 T-CPS at our fingertips. Next year, I expect the earth simulator to be able to handle 38 TCPS and by 2015, early quantum computers will handle 38 TCPS. By 2015, we will be able to see to the edge of the universe with massive computing at 14B light Years with computers that can handle 8.6 Quadrillion CPS. Computing will finally surpass Moore’s law.For you techies: Quadrillion means 10 to the power of 15 CPS performed every second. This number, which blows people’s minds, has profound implications for cloud and other technology. Services will develop that are so massive it is hard to even imagine them. If they are not careful, Quantum Computing will create real headaches for service providers by 2015.
- Knowledge Mining Rules!
Knowledge Mining will replace all data mining and information mining; this will have a huge impact on data retention and compression across the entire enterprise. - The Advent of LTE-A
LTE-A will finally become reality, with peak speeds of up to 1 Gbps+; LTE-A will compete with FTTH technologies - New Radio Developments
New Wireless RAN technologies will use cognitive radios; small sites and femto cells will be history like other technologies. - New Technologies to watch for in 2015:
– Thumb Print Scanners
– Large Mobile Storage like SATA in smart phones
– Fuel Cells for higher battery life which could exceed 3-10 days of life on single charge
– 3-D printing
– IPv6
– 100 Mbps broadband speed for consumers
– Autonomic computing
– Quantum computing for use in all type of verticals such as security, surgery and, mainly, robotics.
– 50 billion end points including RFIF- and GPS-based devices
– 10:1 ratio of wireless devices to wire line.
– Speech-to-speech translation in real time will finally become reality with technologies such as quantum computing
– We will start to see implantation of “nano computers”: quantum computers which are one hundredth the size of current PCs and one thousandth the weight of the smallest Laptop and PC in the world.
– Green technology will finally become real and affordable for consumer and business to use which will drive the need for lower oil dependency and create jobs beyond what we have ever seen in the past 100 years.
– Wearable Networks: networks that, in case of failure, return to their original state with no manual intervention.
– Intelligent optical chip will finally become reality. Light can be stored on a chip which will allow massive amounts of optical processing.
On a final note: The years between 2020-25 will be dominated by machines. Consumers and businesses will live in a robotic world — a scenario eerily reminiscent of the Terminator franchise.
Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi
December 16, 2011
